Project Plan

The WrPMIP is a multi-scale synthesis model intercomparison aimed at improving permafrost representation in current state-of-the-art carbon cycle models. Using an integrated evaluation framework, the project will develop site-level observationally-based climate forcing, standard simulation protocols across all participating models, and experimentally based permafrost warming benchmarks for future integration into frameworks like CMIP7 and ILAMB.

Phase 1 (2022):

The goal of the WrPMIP Phase 1 is to quantify variability across model estimates of abiotic response and land-atmosphere carbon exchange in areas of warming permafrost. We will approach this research from a regional perspective first as suggested in our first working group meeting that took place in June 2022. We expect to run regional model simulations with a baseline climate forcing product and implement two types of warming – open top chamber (OTC) warming (surface) and snow fence warming (deeper soil). This initial assessment will provide simulation outputs from which we can investigate the critical synthesis of model structural differences and their effect on simulated permafrost warming responses.

Phase 2 (2023):

During WrPMIP Phase 2, we plan to conduct site-level simulations to mimic warming at experimental sites. At the site-level we will attempt to minimize human time by minimizing or eliminating model optimizations as our key question is across scale and in comparison to observational benchmarks. We will provide a complement of bias-corrected climate forcing and surface datasets for participants to use.

Phase 3 (2024):

During WrPMIP Phase 3, we will focus on climate and emission scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the CMIP6 protocol. This is also a period where we will aim to address potential model improvements. We aim to integrate synthesized knowledge into CMIP7 and ILAMB as current funding ends.