WrPMIP Site Simulations (Phase 2)

Phase Experiment Input Historical
1901-2021
Future
2021-2100
Extended
2100-2300
2 Site-level Baseline Climate, CO2 Bias-corrected CRUJRA Not simulated Not simulated
Site-level OTC Warming Climate, CO2 Bias-corrected CRUJRA Not simulated Not simulated
Site-level Snow Fence Warming Climate, CO2 Bias-corrected CRUJRA Not simulated Not simulated
Site-level Snow Fence Warming w/ Snow Removal Climate, CO2 Bias-corrected CRUJRA Not simulated Not simulated

Site-level Simulations (Phase 2)

There are several key things we can do at the site-level:

  1. Site-level runs lead to outputs directly comparable to site-level warming responses but we can also compare to regional warming to check for coherence of model response across scale.
  2. These experiments allow us to quantify model/site uncertainty in terms of control, OTC, and snow fence warming.
  3. Our main goal is to assess model responses compared to experimental warming data. If we are highly ambitious we could aim to improve models from this work within the funded period (ending Fall 2024) and run improved simulations but this may not be feasible within current time constraints.

At the end of this phase we can experiment with parameterization to better replicate baseline conditions at the site before simulating warming. Further model simulations could also be planned to address key permafrost-focused science questions like: ground ice,  rapid thaw vs decadal changes, etc.